The First World War was a tragic and unnecessary conflict.
John Keegan begins his book, The First World War, with this sentence. He goes on to say, “Yet in damaged civilization, the rational and liberal civilization of the European Enlightenment, permanently for the worse and, through the damage done, world civilization also.” He is describing a peaceful and interconnected world that thought it was on the verge of a golden age of humanity that would surpass the one of Ancient Greece. Many religious people felt they were on the cusp of the millennium as described in Revelation 20:1-6.
Norman Algell had written a best selling book in 1910 called , The Grand Illusion, in which he boldly stated that because of the economic interdependence of the world, war was impossible. The world could no longer afford the disruption that war, it was now too interconnect and dependant to risk the uncertainties of armed conflict.
The rise of international socialism had also contributed to this feeling as many believed that now workers saw themselves as an international brotherhood who would not make war on each other. It was the time of the Progressive movement in the United States were men like Theodore Roosevelt and Woodrow Wilson believed it was the duty of the state to remake society into a fairer and better place. It was a common belief among their disciples, Herbert Hoover and Franklin Roosevelt, that the duty of the state was to make people live up to their potential. Their viewed the state was, Jonah Goldberg points out in his book, Liberal Fascism, “a natural, organic, and spiritual expression of the people themselves.” Combining Darwin with biology and sociology, they were going to make humans and society into paradise and Utopia would come to exist in reality and not just in the mind of Sir Thomas More.
Their was a confidence and optimism in the early twentieth century that we have never regained, nor imagine. It was a time when people felt they could do everything, an employee retired from the patent office because, as he said, there was no longer a need for one as everything that could be invented had been. While it may not have been universal, it was the dominate view of civilization at the time.
It was a time when many international organizations were set up to help the world with its new connectivity, thanks to telegraph and telephone and transportation, thanks to railroads. Custom and patent laws were internationalized in what Thomas Barnett called Globalization I. The religious community, as Europe was not just legally but in practice, Christian, took on many moral crusades against prostitution, alcohol, and slavery.
In 1899, Czar Nichols II had decided to convene a conference at the Hague to strengthen armaments limitations and found an international court. These ideas were adopted, although it was voluntary, but it was an indication of how people thought things would now be handled, by conference not battle. Keegan points out that while these occurred in public, behind closed doors military matters emphasised security and military superiority. On the surface, the idea of a general war occurring in the pre-World War I atmosphere would stand in direct violation of Thomas Barnett’s ideas of connectivity and how the connected world would not fight itself.
The problem was a very Barnett one, technology and economics had far outstripped diplomacy and this would be one of the causes that produced the vertical shock of WW I. Diplomacy was handled as a secondary item in government, usually not even involved in any national security decisions. Diplomats had no international stages and many did not even communicate with their peers by telephone. Many had no idea of the military plans, such as the German Schlieffen Plan or the French Plan 17, and had no idea of the timetables or mandated moves generals had placed upon their nations armed forces. Because of this, Europe was helpless in the march to war that proceeded from the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand in 1914. In an article William J. Astore (Of Butterflies and Tipping Points: The Calamitous Summer of 1914) describes it as:
The large-caliber guns of August seemed so out of proportion to the small caliber pistol fired by Ferdinand’s killer, Gavrilo Princip, that Europeans struggled for metaphors to understand what was happening to them and around them. They spoke of natural disasters-especially of storms. But in doing so, they abnegated responsibility and restricted their options.After all, that August’s storm of steel was man-made, not an act of nature or of God. But by visualizing it as a meteorological event, as a natural disaster, Europeans saw it not as something to be stopped, but only something to be endured. Caught in the swirling winds of their own metaphors, they were swept away by a cataclysm whose warning signs they initially perceived as being too small in magnitude to matter.
As the war unfolded with its casualties and death, it destroyed the optimism of the early century and replaced it with a dark cynicism that changed the mindset of the West. Keegan points out:
Within fifteen years of the wars end, totalitarianism, a new word for a system that rejected the liberalism and constitutionalism which had inspired European politics since the eclipse of monarchy in 1789, was everywhere on the rise.
This liberalism and constitutionalism had been a produce of many years of evolution in Europe. The idea that the king had a duty to provide for the common welfare of the people, came from the
English commonwealth movement which was outlined in Edmund Dudley’s book, The Tree of Commonwealth, in the early 1500s, by the 1550s, King Edward VI was proclaiming that the state had a duty to provide order and protect the weak. While these view were biblical, based on being ones brothers keeper, later writers had slowly transformed them into the duty of the secular state. Entwined with this was a move toward constitutionalism that reached a highlight in the American Constitution in 1789. By 1900, almost all European states were ruled by Parliaments or under a constitutional monarch. Even the absolutism of the Russian empire was drifting into a constitutional monarchy under the weak Nicholas II.
Two events foreshadowed this, one was the sinking of the Titanic in 1912, this would call into question the supremacy of technology and science in the mid1910s. Although the questioning of the boundries of scince were not new, Mary Shelly’s Frankenstein asked if there was a limit to what science should explore, but now became more widespread. The other occurred just before the war on July 31, 1914 when French socialist Jean Jaures was assassinated by a French nationalist. Albert Lindemann states in his book, A History of European Socialism,that this event marked the end of international socialism and the many promises of peace that movement had proclaimed.
By 1926 Will Rogers, the American humorist, would show how disillusioned many were with democracy by stating that the, “Dictator form of government is the greatest form of government: that is if you have the right dictator.” Even Winston Churchill would proclaim Italian dictator Benito Mussolini as the greatest lawgiver alive. Time magazine selected Adolph Hitler as their man of the year in 1938 and many though by that time democracy had seen its best days and was now dying.
The world looked upon the carnage of the war and vowed to never fight another one, thus NevilleChamberlain went to Munich and made his agreements with Hitler. Europe was in no mood for war, even in the colonies. England had brutally put down the Boer Rebellion in the early 1900s, but was somewhat hesitant to battle Gandhi and the Indian Independence movement with the same enthusiasm. Meanwhile the carnage of the war left America unwilling to involve itself in European politics and isolationism would cover the US like a giant fog. America saw the result of the war as just more of the same when it came to European politics, and drifted under the protection of Fortress America. This would last until December 7,1941, but echos of it are seen in Robert Taft and Pat Buchanan later in the century.
Protectionism and isolationism would rule American politics for the next decade, until the Depression would engulf the American experiment. FDR, a progressive at heart, looked at the despair and problems of America and knew he could fix them. He, and the Progressives, felt they had answers to a grinding poverty that drove people like John Dillinger and Bonnie and Clyde to crime, that forced the Joad family to the semi–slavery status in California, or drove many to despair as seen in the works of John Steinbeck. Even Herbert Hoover, was an apostle of this movement and many of FDR’s programs were extensions of Hoover’s ideas. These came from the pre-war idea that the state could overcome all things and make society into a just and fair place.
The Second World War soon exploded and Keegan described it , “The Second World War, when it came in 1939, was unquestionably the outcome of the First, and in a large measure its continuation.” Historian John Lukas expands this by arguing that the war that started in 1914 does not end until the fall of the Soviet Union in 1989. The reluctance to stand up to Hitler at Munich, despite evidence that the time Chamberlain gained at Munich allowed Great Britain to build the planes that would win the Battle of Britain, would be used by American Presidents as the reason they went into Korea, Veit Nam, and Iraq.
Thomas Burnett describes the 1990s as a mirror of the 1920s, when events and economics overwhelmed the system and brought on the Depression and subsequent war. He also compares the 1930s to 2000s, one may wonder if the 2010s might resemble the 1940s. The economic downturn and the rise of Isamofacist and a aggressive Russia might portend a bad storm.
So much of the last century turned on the events of August 1914. How different would a world look if the First World War had not happened. Without the disruption of the war, there is no Hitler, Stalin, or even Mao. How might the Civil Rights movement looked without many black soldiers who refused to go back to segregation after risking their lives to fight Hitler and Jim Crow. Without the Soviet threat, we may not have had the McCarthy era, without WW II John Kennedy would have been working on his brother Joseph’s bid to be President.
Boundaries in the Middle East, the rise of communism, and the militarization of America are all results of this war. The French and British divided the Middle East between them at Versailles, despite protest from Indian Muslims not to break up the Constantinople Caliphate (fearing the ending of it would subject Islam to the many radical components of the religion). Without the disruption of the First World War Russia would not have fallen to Lenin and communism may never have had a beachhead in Europe.
At Versailles, Ho Chi Min was turned away by many powers in his bid to end colonialism in Veit Nam and found allies only with the French communist party. After the First World War the Untied States, as it had done after all of its previous wars, cut her military substantially. In aftermath of the Second, to prevent the mistakes of their father, the US did not cut its military, but expanded it to meet the threat it saw from the Soviet Union.
The specter of Munich, a direct result of the fear of war by Europe, would drive American foreign policy to the present time. Not only Munich, but the Wilsonian ideals of foreign policy, with its emphasise on internationalism, would find adherents in every American President from FDR to Obama.
But this could not happen again, as we have international stages for diplomacy and our economises are too interconnect for such a war. Also, the nuclear threat, which Barnett claims prevented an American-Soviet war, would keep the major powers from such a course. Or could it?
Imagine a high ranking, but JR. Chinese official visiting the western areas of China. Islamic terrorist from Russian territory assassinate him in an area that is deputed by both nations. China demands that the terrorist be turned over to them, and Russia, a nation whose honor has been hurt by the fall of the Soviet empire, refuses. China, along with a diplomatic assault at the UN, moves troops to the border to show they are serious. Russia responds by doing the same. A small skirmish ensures along the border. The response by both nations is a general mobilization, with the US responds to by placing its armed forces at DEFCON 5, because of the seriousness of this situation. Russian and Chinese generals put their war plans, all nations have them, into place. The Russian one calls for two actions to protect it forces and gain its navy some freedom to act. They attack missile sites in Poland and send a force to occupy the Dardanelles. US treaties an NATO commitments are in force. Welcome to World War III.